Will Hamas meet Israel’s ceasefire deal deadline of May 10th?
Basic
42
Ṁ3937resolved May 11
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves Yes if Hamas and Israel publicly agree to a ceasefire deal by the ultimatum deadline reported by WSJ and others. If the deadline is extended and passes by, this resolves No. The ceasefire effectively unfolding is a separate question. Timezone deadline is Israel local time, 11:59pm.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
News today is positive-ish.
This is probably a little underestimated at 30%
@CraigTalbert I disagree, the main sticking point of whether the ceasefire will be temporary or permanent still hasn't been solved. I don't think there is a mutually acceptable middle ground.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Hamas negotiate to release more 10/7 hostages before a permanent ceasefire ?
76% chance
If Israel and Hamas enter into a ceasefire, how long will it last?
Will the next Israel:Hamas ceasefire list a specific number of days?
80% chance
Will a deal be reached with Hamas for the release of any more of the remaining Israeli hostages by the end of May?
58% chance
Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire or treaty before the end of 2024?
10% chance
By what time will Israel and Hamas, agree to a ceasefire?