Will Hamas meet Israel’s ceasefire deal deadline of May 10th?
Mini
42
Ṁ3.9kresolved May 11
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves Yes if Hamas and Israel publicly agree to a ceasefire deal by the ultimatum deadline reported by WSJ and others. If the deadline is extended and passes by, this resolves No. The ceasefire effectively unfolding is a separate question. Timezone deadline is Israel local time, 11:59pm.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ499 | |
| 2 | Ṁ47 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ32 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
Sort by:
News today is positive-ish.
This is probably a little underestimated at 30%
@CraigTalbert I disagree, the main sticking point of whether the ceasefire will be temporary or permanent still hasn't been solved. I don't think there is a mutually acceptable middle ground.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire before the end of October 7th?
13% chance
Will Hamas negotiate to release more 10/7 hostages before a permanent ceasefire ?
37% chance
By what time will Israel and Hamas, agree to a ceasefire?
If Israel and Hamas enter into a ceasefire, how long will it last?
Will the next Israel:Hamas ceasefire list a specific number of days?
66% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
12% chance
Will a deal be reached with Hamas for the release of any more of the remaining Israeli hostages by the end of May?
10% chance
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of Sept 18th?
12% chance