Resolves No three months after the resolution of the current Gaza military conflict, or Yes if at any time a major west-aligned news outlet such as CNN or The Economist runs with this story without substantial criticism. If CNN mentions the story but calls it "fabricated" or "mere speculation", that sort of story won't count.
It does not matter what technology Israel uses in the eventual story, including if the cries are generated rather than recorded. The spirit of the market is whether an auditory trap using supposed vulnerable people was used to manipulate, kill, injure, and/or capture Palestinians during this present conflict. Completely non-auditory traps will not count, not because they are any more ethical, but because this market is primarily trying to investigate a specific news story.
Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that Euro-Med Monitor and CAIR (Council on American-Islamic Relations) are not major enough or not sufficiently west-aligned to count for resolution. Sources must be major west-aligned outlets similar to the examples given (e.g., CNN, The Economist).
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Euro-Med Monitor: West aligned?
Coincil on American-Islamic Relations: definitely West-aligned.
@Chumchulum Not major enough like my examples, and CAIR is western-based but not aligned. Not resolving yet though.
@Panfilo CAIR is recognized as western aligned. Despite a liberal framing, it is aligned with the US positions on Syria, a two-state solution, and regarding the regime in Iran. It is funded by American Muslims, who are western-aligned.
@Chumchulum I think you have a reasonable angle for this as Bayesian evidence that things are moving in that direction, but CAIR is not in the same league as CNN or The Economist regardless.
This market is more about cnn reporting about this Israeli war crime than Israel actually doing it. Wish Israel would stop killing journalists in Palestine (and now Lebanon too) so we can have markets that can be adjudicated properly.
the Times of India and NDTV cover this but they are not Western outlets and they cite Al Jazeera which is not likely to be impartial in these types of situations. They likely cite this Al Jazeera article or this one published later. They are in Arabic.
@ShakedKoplewitz I doubt this story is true as described, but it does match a pattern of Israel being criticized for precisely the things it should be praised for, because people think in terms of copenhagen ethics and instinctively condemn anyone trying to deal with a difficult situation.
@ShakedKoplewitz Except Israel attacks anyone that is drawn towards the noise which defeats your made up narrative. Even from first principles, it would be odd, while committing a genocide, for Israel to put that much effort into avoiding civilian casualties this one time. Israel brags about made up narratives of caring for civilian life, why would they not be bragging here too?