Will the United States and Brazil announce a formal trade agreement by November 30, 2025?

Context: Brazil's leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expressed confidence that his country and the United States will reach a trade deal, with U.S. President Donald Trump also signaling that a deal is likely. President Trump stated that he will instruct his team to begin a process, a period of bilateral negotiations. A trade deal between Brazil and the United States could be sealed within days.

Background: The White House has imposed a total tariff rate of 50% on Brazilian products, citing the criminal prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. While the United States and Brazil do not share a formal free trade agreement, the Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation (ATEC) provides a strong framework for advancing the trade and investment climate in both countries.

Resolution: This market resolves YES if the U.S. and Brazil officially announce a new trade agreement (bilateral or expanded ATEC protocol) by November 30, 2025. Resolution can be verified through official statements from the U.S. State Department (https://www.state.gov/), U.S. Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/), or Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Resolves NO if no agreement is announced by the deadline.

• Update 2025-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tariff reductions or suspensions alone do not count - the market requires a formal trade agreement announcement to resolve YES. A political deal or agreement in principle is not sufficient unless it is announced as a formal trade agreement.