Donald Trump has claimed in May 2023:

"If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin”.

He later explained:

“I know Zelensky very well, I know Putin very well—even better—and I had a very good relationship with both of them,” he said.

He said he would tell Mr Zelensky: “No more, you gotta make a deal,” and Mr Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we’re gonna give them a lot. We’re gonna give more than they ever got.”

I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:

• The Russia-Ukraine war is still in an active phase when Trump is elected.

• It is confirmed by Trump, Putin and Zelensky (or their representatives) that Trump has talked to both of them, jointly or separately, by the end of the day after his election.

• "Trump is elected" may be any of three times: when the election is unambiguously called for Trump, when Trump is officially elected by the Electoral College, or when Trump is inaugurated. However, if Trump e.g. talks to Putin immediately after the election is called but to Zelensky on the day of his inauguration, this doesn't count.

• UPD: Trump talking to Zelensky but not Putin after the election was called does not yet trigger a "no" resolution. It is still possible that he will call both of them between the time he is officially elected by the Electoral College and the end of the subsequent day, or call both between the inauguration and the end of the subsequent day.

The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.

See also: