If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin

“I know Zelensky very well, I know Putin very well—even better—and I had a very good relationship with both of them,” he said.

He said he would tell Mr Zelensky: “No more, you gotta make a deal,” and Mr Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we’re gonna give them a lot. We’re gonna give more than they ever got.”

I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:

The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.

The criteria are subjective to a degree - feel free to ask about particular cases.