Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Question

Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

This explicitly excludes any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.

UPD: For more on resolution criteria, see my comment on why I resolved the 2024 market as "no".

See also:

[markets]Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

The Kursk incursion does not count as a significant territorial change, as it does not constitute major territorial gains or capture of significant cities/objects

Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:

Territorial changes are assessed based on the situation as of the market creation date (September 2023).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 61% chance (84 traders, as of Jul 12, 2026).