Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.

Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).

any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).

The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.

UPD: For more on resolution criteria, see 

my comment on why I resolved the 2024 market as "no"

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated)