There has been plenty of talk about splits within the Russian elites. While the consensus is that it's very unlikely they will turn against Putin anytime soon, in-fighting might be increasing. In this context, the market asks about the probability that top-profile Russians will be "get rid of", either through arrests or physical elimination, by their rivals.
With "high-profile russians", in this case I mean top officials (e.g. federal ministers, regional governors, top-level security service officials), top oligarchs (think Prigozhin or Deripaska), or public figures (like Dugin or Strelkov/Girkin). I explicitely do not mean anyone associated with the opposition (e.g. Navalny).
There have to be good reasons to think that the act was a result of inter-elite strife. In particular (by elimination), natural causes of death, accidents, suicide or Ukrainian special operations have to be at least very unlikely explanations. This necessarily implies the resolution will be partly subjective; feel free to ask about any scenarios.
Some examples of events leading to a positive resolution: the violent death of Prigozhin without a meaningful Ukrainian trail; the arrest of defense minister Shoigu on charges of corruption.
An example of an unsifficient event: the killing of Darya Dugina. She did not meet the "top-profile" criteria, and there is a link to a Ukrainian operation that doesn't seem to be spurious.
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Russian investigators detain pro-war nationalist and Putin critic Igor Girkin, his wife says
If this is confirmed and turns out to be an actual arrest, not just a detainment, it would count...
@higherLEVELING Later on, the article calls it "detention".
I will wait a bit for the dust to settle. If, for example, he's let go in a week, this won't trigger a "yes" resolution.
@PS What's the difference between an arrest and detention for the purpose of this market? Girkin was put in СИЗО (remand prison) and criminal charges were pressed on him. I don't see how this could not be an arrest.
@PS
Being arrested and being held in detention are not mutually exclusive. Being arrested means being taken into custody by the police or other law enforcement agency. Detention is the act of detaining someone or the state of being detained in official custody . So, if someone is arrested, they can be held in detention until they are released or brought to trial.
In this case, Igor was arrested by the FSB on charges of inciting extremism. He is currently in detention.
I think you might be thinking of a different term or word instead of arrested. I'm not exactly sure what it is though.
@higherLEVELING @Berg I'll read up on the situation when I have a bit of time - when I posted the link, the article (and in general the information we had) was based on unofficial statements from Girkin's wife and anonymous Telegram channels, I guess it has been updated since.
@jskf i forgot about this too.
let me add some more sources that say the same thing:
1. Russia arrests pro-war Putin critic Igor Girkin, according to reports | Russia | The Guardian
2. Russia Detains Igor Girkin, a Critic of Putin’s War Effort in Ukraine: What to Know - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
he hasn't logged in or done anything for 10 days now
@higherLEVELING @jskf After some thought, I resolved "yes". I'm not sure I still consider Girkin pro-regime, but I explicitly named him as a possible target and the arrest does seem to fit the bill.
@PS full transparency. i took your message at face value and assume you know more about the topic. I have zero knowledge about him, but am reading wiki as i type. I can say that he is a self-described russian nationalist, army vet., former fsb officer, a spy turned soldier. He is a war-blogger, is pro-war, but has made criticisms towards russian army in particular he mentions russian incompetence and "insufficiency".
my question is if you criticize russia, does that automatically make you no longer pro-regime. I think he's pro-regime, but has his criticisms on certain things. im not 100% sure. is it a spectrum to be pro-regime or is it you either are or you are not type thing
@higherLEVELING In recent months, he took to criticizing not only Defense Minister Shoigu but also Putin himself, going so far as to call upon him to step down to make way for someone capable. Since the regime more or less is Putin at this point, I feel he's against the regime in an important (and open) way. On the other hand, he is widely believed to have many people agreeing with him (and, until recently, protecting him) in the army and intelligence services, so he's not a total outsider, either.
@MartinModrak I think it fits both the letter and the spirit of the question, so yes. His detainment (just held for questions for a week or so) wouldn't count, though.
@PS ill just name them as it happens, and will see if i matches up and works out. I have a question though, what is russian actor?
@CopyFloppyTrace I meant that the perpetrator acts on behalf of the Russian state or Russian elites, not e.g. for the benefit of Ukraine.
@PS how will that be determined? has there been anyone kiled that is confirmed to have been killed by Russian actors?
@CopyFloppyTrace As the description says:
"There have to be good reasons to think that the act was a result of inter-elite strife. In particular (by elimination), natural causes of death, accidents, suicide or Ukrainian special operations have to be at least very unlikely explanations. This necessarily implies the resolution will be partly subjective; feel free to ask about any scenarios."
An obvious example was the arrest of Khodorkovsky back in the day. I don't think there was an actual killing, though there would have been if e.g. Prigozhin was killed by pro-government forces.
@PS o ok. so no need for source, just has to make sense. best example i can think of is Alexander Litvinenko. Poisonings seem to be a preferred choice for assassination
@higherLEVELING I don't think Litvinenko would count for two reasons: first, he's not part of the elite, second, he explicitly put himself in opposition to the regime by defecting. Prigozhin claimed he was still pro-Putin (however unconvincingly), and certainly still pro-regime.
@PS oh right. i was focused more on, who else could have poisoned him like that. but that makes sense, i didnt put into account that he was ops
@PS More seriously: "accidents, suicide or Ukrainian special operations have to be at least very unlikely explanations", as the description states. I wouldn't have counted any of the defenestrations I've read about, I think they were neither prominent enough nor suspicious enough.