Killed is meant in a narrow sense here. It can be argued that imprisoning Navalny and putting him in harsh conditions already constitutes murder. However, this market is about the immediate cause of Navalny's death.
This resolves "yes" once there is convincing evidence that the Russian authorities wanted Navalny to die at that particular time and took successful steps to this aim (e.g. by poisoning him). For reference, I regard the evidence for Navalny's poisoning in 2020 to be convincing; I will use consensus in Western media to decide. Reasons like extended solitary confinement or insufficient medical care do not count, even if they contributed or led to Navalny's death, if they did not seem to aim at killing him there and then.
The market resolves "no" if there is no convincing evidence by the end of 2025.
If there is some evidence, but it isn't conclusive (there is no consensus), I will resolve at 50%.
1,000
3.00Journalists from "The Insider" gained access to documents related to Navalny's death: https://theins.ru/politika/274921
Among them are two versions of the decision to refuse to open a criminal case following his death. The first/draft version mentions that Navalny had stomach pains, vomiting and seizures before his death, but it's removed from the second and final version.
This updates me in the direction that Navalny was murdered, or more specifically poisoned.
@wadimiusz
This is how his death was described in the draft version:
«Осужденный Навальный А.А. 16.02.2024 в период нахождения в прогулочном дворе №2 ЕПКТ почувствовал резкое ухудшение состояния своего здоровья, о чем сообщил дежурному сотруднику учреждения, который вывел последнего из помещения прогулочного двора в помещения секции №4 ЕПКТ.
Далее, осужденный Навальный А.А. лег на пол, после чего начал высказывать жалобы на резкую боль в области живота, у него началось рефлекторное извержение содержимого желудка, проявились судороги, и он потерял сознание, о чем незамедлительно было сообщено медицинским работникам исправительного учреждения».
GPT4 translation:
"Inmate Navalny A.A., on 16.02.2024, during his time in exercise yard No. 2 of the EPCT, experienced a sudden deterioration in his health, which he reported to the duty officer of the institution. The officer escorted him out of the exercise yard to section No. 4 of the EPCT.
Subsequently, inmate Navalny A.A. lay down on the floor and began to complain of severe abdominal pain, experienced reflex vomiting of stomach contents, exhibited convulsions, and lost consciousness. This was immediately reported to the medical staff of the correctional institution."
Also, another document that The Insider got access to - a list of seized items (опись изъятых объектов) - includes "samples of vomit" (образцы рвоты), which was sent for examination (экспертиза). Neither vomit nor the fact there was some form of examination was subsequently officially mentioned.
@wadimiusz A siloviki-related telegram channel published another alleged draft version of the same document: https://t.me/vchkogpu/51449
It includes a list of traumas that was also omitted from the final version (if we are to believe that this alleged draft version is indeed real). Most of them are described as either resulting from attempts to provide first aid or appearing after his death as consequence to the body's medical examination. However, it also mentions bruises (кровоподтёки) on his elbows, shins, and foot, which it states appeared on Navalny's body 30 to 40 minutes before he died and "are not causally linked to his death" (WTF??? as far as I can tell it does not offer any explanation about their origin.)
Note that this is not a trusted media source. Unlike the info I posted above, this does not originate from The Insider or any other reputable investigative journalism source. This is just a big (1m+ subscribers) siloviki-related telegram channel. Don't overupdate on this. But I thought this should be brought here, and let the traders figure out how much to update.
List of traumas as summed up by Meduza and translated by ChatGPT:
✹ Bruises on the elbows, shins, and foot, which, according to the document, appeared 30-40 minutes before death and "are not causally related to the death";
✹ Hemorrhages on the lower lip that appeared during artificial lung ventilation;
✹ Rib fractures that occurred during resuscitation and their removal for medico-forensic examination;
✹ Trachea fractures that occurred during the body's examination after death;
✹ A scratch on the foot that appeared post mortem;
✹ A bruise on the forearm that appeared 3-7 days before death.
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/alexei-navalny-death-us-intelligence-71bc95b0
Putin Didn’t Directly Order Alexei Navalny’s February Death, U.S. Spy Agencies Find
U.S. intelligence agencies have determined that Putin likely didn’t order Navalny to be killed at the notoriously brutal prison camp in February, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that deepens the mystery about the circumstances of his death.
The finding is broadly accepted within the intelligence community and shared by several agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the State Department’s intelligence unit, the people said.
@SemioticRivalry that's their conclusion, but to fully prove the absence of something is incredibly difficult. They could have just missed a bit of info.
@SemioticRivalry also, if putin didn't order to kill, Navalny could have died from some other person's initiative. The market doesn't ask whether the specifically putin killed navalny.
If there is some evidence, but it isn't conclusive (there is no consensus), I will resolve at 50%.
Why not resolve to whatever probability you assign to him having been killed?
@BrunoParga That would be an option, but I like to keep my markets as objective as possible under the circumstances, and deferring to media consensus seems the best way to do that.