Was Alexei Navalny killed [see description]?
Basic
29
2.4k
2025
69%
chance

Killed is meant in a narrow sense here. It can be argued that imprisoning Navalny and putting him in harsh conditions already constitutes murder. However, this market is about the immediate cause of Navalny's death.

This resolves "yes" once there is convincing evidence that the Russian authorities wanted Navalny to die at that particular time and took successful steps to this aim (e.g. by poisoning him). For reference, I regard the evidence for Navalny's poisoning in 2020 to be convincing; I will use consensus in Western media to decide. Reasons like extended solitary confinement or insufficient medical care do not count, even if they contributed or led to Navalny's death, if they did not seem to aim at killing him there and then.

The market resolves "no" if there is no convincing evidence by the end of 2025.

If there is some evidence, but it isn't conclusive (there is no consensus), I will resolve at 50%.

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https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/alexei-navalny-death-us-intelligence-71bc95b0

Putin Didn’t Directly Order Alexei Navalny’s February Death, U.S. Spy Agencies Find


U.S. intelligence agencies have determined that Putin likely didn’t order Navalny to be killed at the notoriously brutal prison camp in February, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that deepens the mystery about the circumstances of his death.


The finding is broadly accepted within the intelligence community and shared by several agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the State Department’s intelligence unit, the people said. 


bought Ṁ10 YES

@SemioticRivalry that's their conclusion, but to fully prove the absence of something is incredibly difficult. They could have just missed a bit of info.

@SemioticRivalry also, if putin didn't order to kill, Navalny could have died from some other person's initiative. The market doesn't ask whether the specifically putin killed navalny.

If there is some evidence, but it isn't conclusive (there is no consensus), I will resolve at 50%.

Why not resolve to whatever probability you assign to him having been killed?

@BrunoParga That would be an option, but I like to keep my markets as objective as possible under the circumstances, and deferring to media consensus seems the best way to do that.

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