Will we have a FOSS equivalent of GPT-4 by the end of the year?
Mini
32
Ṁ4.5k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

@RichardSocher

With this much excitement and energy in the LLM space, I am fairly confident in this prediction: Before the end of this year, there will be an open source model that is equivalent in quality to #GPT4 Then, AI researchers and the AI community will go to town and improve it.

(https://twitter.com/KevinAFischer/status/1637214737451855874)

Resolves positive if a FOSS model (no signup required to download) is pubically available by 12/31/23 that outperforms GPT-4 on at least 50% of the tests listed in this article (https://www.semafor.com/article/03/15/2023/how-gpt-4-performed-in-academic-exams)

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It's still possible that there could be a hail-mary using MOE or DPO to fine-tune Llama2-70B, but it's looking increasingly certain this will resolve "no".