July 6th Obs Temp was 17.23°C. Includes Jul 7 - Jul 12
Resolves NO if a day has a temperature above 17.23°C according to https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
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The threshold of rise in temperature it would need exceed from July 11 to July 12 for the previous record to be broken is now 0.149 C.
From this graph you can see +- 10 days around July 11, it has only risen above this necessary threshold 3 times total (1 time it came very close) for all ~44.5 years in the JSON: 3 / (10 + (21 * 44)) ~= 0.32% (The market is now at 99.5% so it is very close). Given this difference and considering how unusual this year is, I want to hedge a little rather than not betting at all, so using Kelly criterion I should bet about 3 mana NO.
July 3rd: 17.01°C/16.20°C
July 4th: 17.18°C/16.20°C
July 5th: 17.18°C/16.21°C
July 6th: 17.23°C/16.22°C (Record Breaking)
July 7th: 17.20°C/16.22°C
July 8th: 17.17°C/16.23°C
July 9th: 17.11°C/16.23°C
July 10th: 17.12°C/16.23°C
July 11th: 17.08°C/16.23°C
July 12th: TBD
I modified my analysis to work backwards. Based on the analysis in the other market, I am estimating the probability is ~ between 4-11%. Based on this I am betting to adjust the market probability to my estimate of 6-7% of the record being broken (93% chance resolving YES), since I think 5% is a bit too low (95% chance resolving YES).
https://manifold.markets/PC/will-july-6th-be-the-hottest-day-in#n7ydhE55XjldQgJhmVWH
New measurement of 17.118 C for July 10.
Given two days out I still think the market is too high at 97%, and estimate the probability is ~ between 2-10%, with a middle estimate of ~5-6%. Based on this I am increasing my NO bet to reflect this probability.
New measurement of 17.084 C. The temperature rise needs to exceed 0.149C from July 11 to July 12, which is historically possible for this time of year but it is < 2.5% ( 0 to 2.5% now )
Looking at the blue line now it is about 0-2%
Edit: Deleted
@parhizj
Edit: fixed typo for July 8
July 3rd: 17.01°C/16.20°C
July 4th: 17.18°C/16.20°C
July 5th: 17.18°C/16.21°C
July 6th: 17.23°C/16.22°C (Record Breaking)
July 7th: 17.20°C/16.22°C
July 8th: 17.17°C/16.23°C
Edit: My own (dodgy) analysis:
Max 2m Temp Rise (historically) expected 4 days out from July 08, 2023
0.434
# Occurences 2m Temp Rise (historically) expected 4 days out from July 08, 2023
102
Chance of temp rise 4 days out from July 08, 2023
57.95 %
Average temperature rise conditioned on only days that have positive rise:
0.075
(Max) Expected Positive Temperature rise 4 days out from July 08, 2023
0.044
July 8 is 17.168. 17.168 + 0.044 = 17.212. This might be a lower bound since the variability seems especially high this year (I cannot account for this). However, based on the previous expected value, I am switching my bet to YES (it won't be broken).
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