Given the absence of consistently verified annual fatality data for Balochistan alone, is it appropriate to use nationwide all-over Pakistan conflict-related death totals as a proxy for estimating casualties specifically in Balochistan?
The Wikipedia page “List of ongoing armed conflicts” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts covers all active insurgencies in Pakistan.
Pakistan is a federation composed of several diverse regions, many of which experience different forms of unrest, including insurgencies, militancy, sectarian violence, and border incidents with Afghanistan and India.
Despite this, some market creators such as @Panfilo appear to focus heavily on the conflict in Balochistan while lacking reliable data on annual fatalities specific to groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).
Available long-term estimates suggest roughly 2,000 militant deaths over two decades (not a year), in addition to civilian casualties. That makes it a local conflict, not a minor war.
Meanwhile, Pakistan faces multiple other insurgencies and terrorist incidents across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Sindh, and nationwide, which collectively may exceed 1,000 deaths in some years.
https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w-qZOApZpQCU
Is it fair to use nationwide conflict data to represent Balochistan specifically?
Short answer: No - using whole-country casualty numbers to describe one province is not methodologically sound or fair.
Here’s the poll, please vote.
1. Different conflicts ≠ one conflict
Pakistan has multiple, distinct forms of violence:
Balochistan insurgency
TTP and ISIS-affiliated militancy
Sectarian violence across several provinces
Tribal, ethnic, and political clashes
Border skirmishes with Afghanistan and India
Aggregating all deaths ignores the location, actors, and causes of each incident.
2. Misrepresentation risk
Using nationwide totals to describe Balochistan:
Overstates the scale of the conflict there
Misleads bettors into thinking the province accounts for all violence
Distorts analysis and public understanding
3. Data uncertainty requires caution
If no reliable Balochistan-specific yearly data exists, the correct approach is:
avoid filling them with unrelated national statistics
acknowledge that Balochistan Liberation Army conflict isn't the global scale minor war (the term related to wars with over 1000 deaths per year)
4. Fairness requires accuracy. Misleading estimates should not be accepted, even if someone attempts to overstate the scale of the conflict in Balochistan. https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w-qZOApZpQCU
1,000