The most recent round of Finnish parliamentary elections were held on April 2nd, 2023. The liberal-conservative party Kansallinen Kokoomus won the election with 20.8% of the national popular vote, while right-wing populist Finns party acheived a record 20.1%, and previous Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s center-left party SDP securing 19.9% of the votes.

The negotiations to form the new coalition government took place after the election and lasted for 78 days, the second longest negotiations in Finnish history. The new coalition government was formed on June 20th, 2023. The current coalition government is composed of five parties: the Social Democratic Party of Finland (SDP), the Centre Party, the Green League, the Left Alliance and the Swedish People’s Party of Finland.

Just 18 days after the formation of the new government, economics minister Vilhelm Junnila narrowly survived a vote of no confidence, by a margin of 95-86, amidst concerns about jokes he had previously made about Nazism, sterilization in Africa, and the KKK. 7 members of his own coalition voted against him and had the entire opposition coalition been present, it is considered likely he would have lost the vote.

Such a rapid attempt to oust a minister has called into question the fragility of the Finnish government.

Will the Finnish government collapse in 2023? The question resolves YES if the government resigns, is ousted by a vote of no confidence, or a general election is called through any other means. Resolves NO otherwise.