@OurWorldIntheFuture Not sure I follow the mechanism here.

Solar has risen to 5.5% from 0.1% in 2008 and 1% in 2015. Suppose everyone sensible thinks it will reach 10% in 4 years time so these people push price up to 99% making resolution 1 year away. Then some people start selling to push the price down to 97% which makes resolution 3 years away so people don't want to tie up their mana so sell and the price falls so the sellers can take a profit?

What does this achieve other than seemingly a disconnect between resolution and solar world generation that the question seems to be about?

If we wait a year then push price to 99% is the resolution date then in the past so immediately resolves true regardless of how far off solar is from 10%?

What is going on with this and why?

@ChristopherRandles I see this as an experiment. with an IF-and-WHEN market, that allows to simulanously trade the question if an event happens (odds in %) and when it will happen (resolution date). I'm not sure if that approach will prove to work, but I think it's worth a try. Let's wait and see how this develops.

>"The market will resolve to YES when it trades at 99% and the resolution date one year ahead is reached."

Is that 'one year ahead'
1. One year after claim creation date or
2. One year after date first reached 99% or
3. One year after date first reached 99% provided that at least at 99% at the end of the one year or
4. One year after date first reached 99% provided that at least at 99% at any point on or after the end of the one year or
5. One year after date reaching 99% and staying at least at that level for the whole one year period or
6. Something else.

Some, maybe all, of these seems likely to be a bad idea:

1. It will be pushed to 99% after one year regardless of what happens with solar.
2., 3. and 4. Push to 99% if prepared to wait a year for the profit regardless of what happens with solar 4 and particularly 3 require remembering to come back and push up to 99% one year later
5. It is easy to push down from 99% so people would make small bets at high % to delay resolution so I can imagine this not resolving for quite a while after solar at over 10%.

If you want two different questions why not two different markets but experimenting with a concept of two questions in one market is fine. However I am still struggling to see the aim & how you expect it to work (as well as not fully understanding exactly how it will be operated per different interpretations above).

Is "IF-and-WHEN" really two different questions or is it really a single 'when' question with never as one of the options?

@ChristopherRandles The one year ahead is meant like your number 5. One year after reaching 99% and staying at that level for the whole year, because a change from 99% to 98% would bring resolution date again to 2 years. And you are right, someone could try to delay resolution by bringing the odds with small bets to 98% again. It's an experiment and I'm learning.

I now think the one year period is much too long, the change of resolution dates should be shorter with higher odds. I have set up a new experiment with this market and would be interested to get your feedback on this one, too. https://manifold.markets/OurWorldIntheFuture/will-the-world-population-reach-82

Will the world population reach 8.2 billion and when will that happen?

66% chance. This is an experimental If-and-when-market, that allows you to bet simultaneously on the odds and realization time of the world population reaching 8.2 billion. World population is defined as the total number of humans alive. There are several live counters on the internet that display different numbers. Will this market determine the true point in time? YES or NO resolution, as well as the resolution date, will be decided by the market alone. The resolution date will shift based on market odds: it will move closer as the odds increase, and further away as the odds decrease. With higher odds, the resolution date will approach the present time quicker. The market will resolve to YES when it trades at 99% and the resolution date is reached. It will resolve to NO when it trades at 1% and the resolution date is reached. Initially, with 50% odds, the resolution date is set 8,700 days (about 23 years and 10 months) in the future. I have a specific number of days in the future for every odd between 1 and 99%. Odds and resolution date will shift as follows: 1%: 69,950 days in the future (...) 5%: 48,120 days (...) 10%: 35,270 days (...) 20%: 21,040 days (...) 30%: 13,570 days (...) 40%: 9,860 days (...) 60%: 1,920 days (...) 65%: 1,340 days (...) 70%: 970 days (...) 75%: 710 days (...) 80%: 510 days, 81%: 480 days, 82%: 450 days, 83%: 410 days, 84%: 380 days, 85%: 350 days, 86%: 320 days, 87%: 291 days, 88%: 264 days, 89%: 238 days, 90%: 213 days, 91%: 188 days, 92%: 164 days, 93%: 140 days, 94%: 117 days, 95%: 95 days, 96%: 73 days, 97%: 52 days, 98%: days, 99%: 11 days.    I will try to update resolution dates as promptly as possible, but that will not be feasible 24/7.

@OurWorldIntheFuture Good luck with the experimenting and thanks for the answers.

I am thinking they are unattractive to bet on because of
1. the disconnect between what the question is supposed to be about and how and when it actually resolves and
2 While the mechanics of how and when it resolves may be interesting enough to some even though unrelated to question title, they look likely to be too long term for a decent rate of return.

What if we expect solar to reach >50% within 50 years, but also to be less than 50% by 50 years? (Temporary)

@capybara It is up to you, if you bet YES or NO or don't engage on this market. We will see how this will develop.