This is an experimental If-and-when-market, that allows you to bet simultaneously on the odds and realization time of the world population reaching 8.2 billion. World population is defined as the total number of humans alive. There are several live counters on the internet that display different numbers. Will this market determine the true point in time?

YES or NO resolution, as well as the resolution date, will be decided by the market alone. The resolution date will shift based on market odds: it will move closer as the odds increase, and further away as the odds decrease. With higher odds, the resolution date will approach the present time quicker. The market will resolve to YES when it trades at 99% and the resolution date is reached. It will resolve to NO when it trades at 1% and the resolution date is reached.

Initially, with 50% odds, the resolution date is set 8,700 days (about 23 years and 10 months) in the future. I have a specific number of days in the future for every odd between 1 and 99%. Odds and resolution date will shift as follows:

1%: 69,950 days in the future (...) 5%: 48,120 days (...) 10%: 35,270 days (...) 20%: 21,040 days (...) 30%: 13,570 days (...) 40%: 9,860 days (...) 60%: 1,920 days (...) 65%: 1,340 days (...) 70%: 970 days (...) 75%: 710 days (...) 80%: 510 days, 81%: 480 days, 82%: 450 days, 83%: 410 days, 84%: 380 days, 85%: 350 days, 86%: 320 days, 87%: 291 days, 88%: 264 days, 89%: 238 days, 90%: 213 days, 91%: 188 days, 92%: 164 days, 93%: 140 days, 94%: 117 days, 95%: 95 days, 96%: 73 days, 97%: 52 days, 98%: days, 99%: 11 days.   

I will try to update resolution dates as promptly as possible, but that will not be feasible 24/7.