This is the fourth on my markets I am creating based on this article

Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.

Death at a Trump rally

BY JULIA AZARI

Julia Azari is a professor of political science at Marquette University.

Political violence can be very disruptive, and it’s usually not planned. Here’s one scenario.

On Oct. 19, a fight breaks out at a Trump rally in Tampa, Florida. A group of five white men in their early 50s looked like standard rally-goers. But as they catch the attention of one of the many TV cameras in the arena, the group pulls out protest signs reading: TRUMP LIES and SAVE DEMOCRACY NOW. They had done similar protest actions together for years — anti-war protests, national political conventions and a few Trump events. Part politics, part reunion for longtime friends who had met in college protesting the first Gulf War.

What happens next is disputed. A couple attending their seventh Trump rally say that the protesters started pushing when people around them chanted insults. Other accounts say the Trump supporters initiated the fighting. However it happened, one of the five protesters suffered a heart attack. He is rushed to a local hospital but dies a few hours later.

News media scramble to cover the event, and the public can’t look away. A clear narrative proves elusive. Was the protester’s demise simply a random tragedy? Or a sign of the dangers of an increasingly violent time in American politics?

Pundits’ debates over these questions, interspersed with interviews with the deceased man’s friends, grieving widow and eloquent, angry teenaged children dominate the remaining weeks of the campaign. These stories drown out much of Biden’s messages about declining unemployment and legislative victories and distract from Trump’s slogans about immigrants and making America great again. The poignancy of the story draws in some Americans who paid little attention to politics, but for close watchers of politics, it was irresistible. Some question why the matter gets so much press when violence against people of color draws a fraction of the coverage. Others call for the suspension of Trump’s campaign, which leads to a whole new set of arguments about whether this was just a pretext to push him out of politics once again. One cable network devotes an hourlong program to a panel discussion about whether the Biden administration has done enough to curb political violence.

And so it continues, until Election Day.

Will resolve YES : If this article comes true and there is at least one death at a Trump Rally that can be attributed to violence. (Violence must have been a factor in precipitating that death -- just someone randomly passes away due to dehydration or a heart attack does not count)

Although the article sets a Election Day Timeline, I am going to keep this open till Inauguration Day in 2025 and any death until then will count. It has to be a Trump Rally (i.e. Trump must have been present at the rally). Violence & Death can happen before or after his presence at the rally within the same day.

No Otherwise