Will it rain in Seattle on Sept 28?
➕
Plus
9
5.1k
Aug 19
31%
chance

Relevant for planning an Astral Codex Ten meetup.

Resolves YES iff either (a) it obviously rains, or (b) I feel a raindrop, on Sept 28, 1p-8p, in Capitol Hill.

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is this gonna be N/A'd, or...?

Not planning to! Why should I, am I missing something? I set it to close on Aug 18 because that was when the information was decision-relevant for me, and I didn't want to subsidize later betting.

nope, my mistake! i thought it had been hidden, not just that it had ended.

bought Ṁ450 NO

Bet to ~1/3 based on wunderground's precipitation history for 2023-09-28 and earlier years.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Can you see aggregated stats on that website or are you just clicking through? Only precipitation I saw in the last 20 years from 1-8pm on Sep 28 was 2013.

NOAA's forecast has slightly above average chance of rain in August-October https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Just clicking through. I saw some precipitation on https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA/date/2021-9-28 .