The resolution criteria on this one are a bit tricky, so read carefully:

The author must have published one book-length work in the English language before winning the prize to resolve to “yes.” Crucially, they do not have to only write in English and more importantly, self-translation counts. This means that if an author originally writes their book in a non-English language but sometime later translated their own book into English, it counts. What doesn’t count is an author who writes only in non-English but gives their Nobel lecture in English.

This question will close at the end of September (winners are typically announced in October) but will not resolve until the day after the winner gives their Nobel lecture (in December). Mind the gap, if you please. Giving the lecture is a requisite to receive the prize and constitutes formal “acceptance” by the author.

In the case of no winners or an ambiguous, non-person winner, this resolves N/A. (Please just kill me if ChatGPT is awarded the prize.)

For the purposes of this market, any non-traditional winners (a la Bob Dylan) will be considered on a case-by-case basis. A poet/singer who has published work in English of any average song/poem length counts, a novelist who has only published news articles/op-eds in English does not count. At least some of their “art” must have been published in English at a typical length for their genre to count.

If you bet, watch this space, as I’ll try to provide as clear of resolution criteria as possible before market close to cover as many conceivable edge cases.

If the winner is leaked/announced before market close, I will immediately close the market without betting on that info myself, but the resolution date will remain the same.