So far at no point in Russian history has the power in the country transitioned to the opposition as a result of a democratic election. All power transitions happened either to a designated successor, or within the same party or political force, or via some sort of revolution or regime change.

Will peaceful transition of power happen for the first time in foreseeable future?

For this market to resolve positively, the following has to happen:

• A candidate not endorsed by the ruling party or force has to win in the presidential elections.

• They should assume office within the next few months after the elections.

• The transition should happen without significant amount of violence (<10 people dead)

• The country which the new president rules should be the same as before the election. No new constitution or dissolution into smaller states in the 6 months before and after the elections.

I do not bet on my own questions.