When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
19
1.5kṀ10k2200
65%
17%
2028 Jul-Dec
4%
2027 Jul-Dec
3%
2025 Jul-Dec
3%
2028 Jan-Jun
2%
2026 Jan-Jun
2%
2026 Jul-Dec
1.8%
2027 Jan-Jun
1%
2025 Jan-Jun
Resolves according to resolution of the corresponding Metaculus question. Half year granularity.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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When will Putin cease to be the President of Russia?
[Predict the year] Vladimir Putin ceases to be the President of Russia
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