When will Betelgeuse go supernova?
14
108
655
4000
0.6%
Before 2025
0.9%
Before 2035
1%
Before 2135
23%
Before 3135
50%
Before 13135
66%
Before 113135
76%
Before 1113135

The star Betelgeuse is a red supergiant at the distance of 600 light years from Earth. It is expected to go supernova roughly within the next 100’000 years. However in 2019-20 Betelgeuse temporarily lost more than half of its brightness, which caused some speculations that it might go supernova sooner, potentially this century.

The market resolves positively as soon as the light of Betelgeuse supernova reaches Earth.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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bought Ṁ3 Before 2035 YES

Unless the option names are misleading 'Before 2035' should be higher than 'Before 2025' and 'Before 3135' should be higher than both of those, since 2025 is before 2035. The market type is independent, so I assume that this is intentional and if 'Before 2025' resolves Yes then so would everything else.

@AnttiRasinen If this is correct, you'd be strictly better off selling some 2025 shares to buy 2035.

@MartyDettmann I’m not going to rational-optimize a 10 mana bet 😇

Before 2025
bought Ṁ10 Before 2025 YES

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