Will this market swing 90% or more, at least three times before close ?
Will this market swing 90% or more, at least three times before close ?
15
330Ṁ3489
resolved Apr 6
Resolved
NO

Will this market experience swings >=90%, at least three times ?

for example, this market starts at 50%, it might go down to 5% then up to 95% (first swing) then back to 5% (swing 2) then 95% again (swing 3), that would be enough for YES consistent with the rules below.

Rules:

  • Each "swing" will be measured as peak to trough or vice versa, fractional probability is rounded to closest integer.

  • Time between peaks/troughs must be at least 12 hours.

  • Peaks and troughs only start counting once the market has reached 10 unique traders.

  • Market close time will be adjusted to 2 weeks after this market reaches 10 traders.

Market will close at NO by default unless the condition is satisfied.

This market is v2 of:

/Odoacre/will-this-market-swing-of-95-or-mor

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ102
2Ṁ26
3Ṁ22
4Ṁ17
5Ṁ9

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy