Will this market swing 90% or more, at least three times before close ?
15
17
330
resolved Apr 6
Resolved
NO

Will this market experience swings >=90%, at least three times ?

for example, this market starts at 50%, it might go down to 5% then up to 95% (first swing) then back to 5% (swing 2) then 95% again (swing 3), that would be enough for YES consistent with the rules below.

Rules:

  • Each "swing" will be measured as peak to trough or vice versa, fractional probability is rounded to closest integer.

  • Time between peaks/troughs must be at least 12 hours.

  • Peaks and troughs only start counting once the market has reached 10 unique traders.

  • Market close time will be adjusted to 2 weeks after this market reaches 10 traders.

Market will close at NO by default unless the condition is satisfied.

This market is v2 of:

/Odoacre/will-this-market-swing-of-95-or-mor

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Looks like a no

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