Will this market swing 95% or more, at least three times before close ?
28
16
Ṁ570
resolved Feb 25
Resolved
NO

Will this market experience swings >=95%, at least three times ?

for example, this market might go down to 3% then up to 98% then back to 3% then 98%, that would be enough for YES consistent with the rules below.

Rules:

  • Each "swing" will be measured as peak to trough or vice versa, fractional probability is rounded to closest integer.

  • Peaks and troughs only count if 10 users or more hold positions at the time they happen.

  • Time between peaks/troughs must be at least 1 day.

Inspired by: /IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-there-be-a-1432a1a506fe, sadly this market will not count for that.

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v2 is up at /Odoacre/will-this-market-swing-90-or-more-a

I'm on vacation and don't have access to the API for precise measurements. Looks like this is a NO though, will resolve in a couple days unless anyone disagrees.

predicted NO

@Odoacre well, everyone agrees, can resolve

bought Ṁ3,330 of YES

Well, I fucked up.

predicted YES

@BionicD0LPH1N The idea was good, but the execution was pathetic. I forgot it was supposed to be 95% swings, not just from 5% to 95%.

@BionicD0LPH1N 😭 also it's way too late, spikes must be spaced by 24 hours so there's not enough time left.

predicted YES

@Odoacre Oh well didn’t read that, oops. 😅 makes me feel a bit better

@BionicD0LPH1N

1.10$ baseball bat & ball heuristic strikes again.

v2 of this: require at least 10 traders before the count starts =P

@StrayClimb that was actually by design.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Fun market :)

@firstuserhere I see one swing from 96 -> 5

@firstuserhere @Odoacre does that count acc to the rules?

@firstuserhere I'm on mobile right now so can't see very clearly, but it looks like there were less than 10 users at the peaks, and less that 1 day between peaks.

Low peaks still count as peaks for the 1 day rule, I realise now this might not be clear, will amend later

Where are you all's limit orders???