Must happen on-stage during main official live broadcast. Real or fake/joke violence will count.
1,000
3.00I would agree that this is one of the most counterintuitive resolution choices that I've seen on this website, and I think that is a big challenge with Manifold. In theory, we can select for market creators who resolve reasonably, but I don't think Manifold is big or efficient enough for that to accomplish much.
Yeah, I probably wouldn't have written the resolution criteria this way if it were my market, but I think most people would agree with the two separate statements that 1) shoves are a type of violence, and 2) that this is a fake/joke form of shoving. Some people might agree with both those separate points without agreeing with the overall conclusion though. Or some people may think it's counterintuitive enough that even if the literal textual criteria is met, the spirit of the question isn't.
At the end of Kimmel's opening monologue, despite Kimmel's joke that instead of pulling people off the stage this year, RRR dancers would be dancing them off, the RRR dancers, while dancing Kimmel off the stage, proceeded to actually pull (and shove) Kimmel in the process. Clearly this was all a joke, but if this were not part of a sketch, the shoving would be construed as physical assault.
If this seems incorrect to you, mentally substitute Kimmel with the winner of Best Actress, and imagine that this were happening non-consenually.
Kimmel being shoved:
Kimmel being pulled:
The market description clearly states that joke violence is just as valid for a YES resolution as real violence.
@JimHays No way this is violence. Even if this was literally non-consensual, the soft nudges would not be considered violent
@NathanNguyen See https://www.shouselaw.com/ca/blog/criminal-defense/is-shoving-someone-considered-an-assault-in-california/
"A California assault can even occur if the touching involved did not or could not cause any sort of injury."
"All of this means that a shove does not have to be hard to make it an assault."
@JimHays Even if we were to equate legal assault with "violence," those statements are about whether it being a "shove" disqualifies it from being assault, not a positive case that a shove counts as violence.
@JacyAnthis
The relevant parts of the WHO definition of violence are: "the intentional use of physical force [...], threatened or actual, against [...] another person, [...] that either results in or has a high likelihood of resulting in injury, [...] psychological harm, [...] or deprivation."
Kimmel was surrounded by a group of people who used direct physical force against him (multiple times) to deprive him of the ability to stay on-stage.
If Kimmel had not been as compliant as he was and careful to stay in the center of the group of dancers, he would likely have been kicked or hit by the group. This suggests that the dancers also threatened injury to him.
Sure, it's not someone pretending to shoot someone with a gun, but it still clears the minimum bar of "fake/joke violence".
If you watch the video, Kimmel says that crew would "dance you off stage", rather than playing them off stage. He then willfully gets danced off the stage by the actors as a demonstration.
The dancers would not kick or hit Kimmel or an award winner, as they are dancers. They are not threatening injury
Even though this is not what I had in mind when I made the market, I'm inclined to resolve as YES.
I watched the video. The dancers clearly placed both hands on Kimmel's chest and mock shoved him. I think everyone agrees that doing this outside of a dance performance would be considered as violent behavior.
While Kimmel was a willing participant and nobody was physically harmed, it is still a depiction of violence through dance and the description clearly says that's enough for a YES resolution.
@JimHays the fully non-joking form of the physical contact displayed in the video would be insufficient to result in injury, psychological harm, or deprivation. As others have said, they "dance you off stage," not "shove you off stage."
If an Oscar winner were actually danced off stage, and the dancers made the fully non-joking physical contact analog of the physical contact, it would not constitute being deprived of one's on stage position. Maybe you want to argue that, if the winner repeatedly failed to comply with the dance, the dancers would become violent, but Kimmel did not include such action in his joke. Potential violence is not violence, and potential fake/joke violence is not fake/joke violence.
@JacyAnthis It’s hard to know exactly what the real version of this would have looked like since we only got Kimmel’s fake version, and “dancing someone off stage” isn’t a regular cultural phenomenon with established norms.
But it seems we can at least extrapolate that the dancers would exert non-consensual physical force to the target’s body to ensure compliance with their demands.
@JacyAnthis The way I see it the dance's intent was to represent a group of people shoving someone off stage. Obviously no one was actually shoved off stage, but the dance meant to convey the idea of someone being violently shoved off stage.
If so it's staged violence.
Yes, everyone was smiling and it was very friendly, but the act depicted was one of violence.
@Odoacre by that logic, you would count the dance as violent even if there were no physical contact because it "represents" shoving. This seems like a very wide and counterintuitive interpretation of the resolution criteria, which I think nudges Manifold in a bad epistemic direction in the long run.
But it's your market. These are the risks we take 🙂
@JacyAnthis Yes, even if they did not actually touch him but only hovered their hands over his chest it would still be staged violence as it's meant to simulate a violent act.
to me, 'fake or joke violence' includes pretend violence.