At close time I will look through profile pictures of the top 5 YES holders and resolve YES if they all have a cat in them.
Resolves NO otherwise.
For the purpose of this question any depiction of a cat is valid, regardless of medium, as long as I recognize it as a cat.
Since this might be subjective I will use an example, so you can have an idea of my cat recognition ability.
The image above shows a famous progression of increasingly more abstract cats. The images on the top row all qualify as cats. In the bottom row, the two images on the left I would count as borderline cats, the two images on the right I would have to say not-cats.
For me, the hardest one to call here is the bottom left one. If it was out of context you could say it might be a dragon, or a bat. In the context of this question though, I would call it a cat.
Since there's subjectivity involved in the criteria I have (sadly) sold my shares and commit not to trading in this market anymore.
1,000
3.00Hello, just wanted to post an update.
I have decided to cancel this market and resolve it as N/A.
The recent events have really changed my opinion of self referential markets where the final outcome depends on how much is spent.
I think manifold should ban these types of markets and I feel like I should do my part in being the change I seek.
Sorry to ruin everyone's fun. I hope you will understand.
@Odoacre I request a 7700-4735 = 2965 compensation from your decision to resolve this N/A. I respect your opinion about wanting get rid of whalebait market, but by creating a whalebait market first, then resolving the market to N/A without consulting the opinion of involved parties (or ignoring their opinion), you damage your credibility as market creator.
@tornado as discussed previously, I don't believe I owe you anything at all.
(full disclosure, tornado reached out to me to discuss his strategy in this market, at that time I told him I was considering cancelling it.)
@Odoacre WTF? Why not wait until this market is done and THEN stop making them. I request a similar compensation as tornado's
@XComhghall I mean that I had a winning position and then it was cancelled. I of course got back my investments
@levifinkelstein Now that it's over would you mind sharing your strategy? Without alts there was no incentive for a yes-holder to break the lead. Did you bet on the bots? Or did I miss something entirely?
@Rwin My primary plan was to just bribe someone, seemed pretty easy given that only 1 out of 5 have to defect and there's a bunch of pressure since if you're not first to accept you lose everything.
@levifinkelstein Well, that could fail since I was unbribable and there were two of my friends in the top 5, in whose I'm pretty confident.
@Berg well if I can't bribe the 2 other people I can always just buy an alt into the top 5
@Rwin if you want to coordinate efforts somehow, feel free to reach me out on twitter or discord in my profile.
Cats, things are looking good. As it has been established that alt accounts don't count, there isn't much incentive to break our stronghold. Keep your low light adjusted eyes open for those though. I guess there might suddenly be a new account in the top five by someone from the no-party. But on Manifold it's luckily pretty easy to identify alts.
@LAA Sorry Levi, I will not count obvious alt accounts. It's lame, and it's forbidden by the manifold rules.
@levifinkelstein Unfortunately this market is a mirror of the "resolves yes if someone has 5k NO" markets. But with yes/no reversed. NO strategy here is to bribe someone to hold enough yes shares. In this case instead of a specific number, they have to hold more than the 5th highest YES holder who is not a traitor, so its actually even easier.
@AlexRockwell Nooo, come on who would do something like that?? This is just a fun little cat market 😍