Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Actual construction of nuclear plants is not required for YES resolution. Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will look for general consensus among legal/expert opinion to determine whether the legge delega and implementing decrees sufficiently remove the ban, since they are not a lawyer and the exact content of the law is unknown.

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 62% chance (44 traders, as of Jun 5, 2026).

Will Italy remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?

MANIFOLD

Will Italy remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?

Ṁ1kṀ4.3k

2028

62%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Actual construction of nuclear plants is not required for YES resolution.

Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will look for general consensus among legal/expert opinion to determine whether the legge delega and implementing decrees sufficiently remove the ban, since they are not a lawyer and the exact content of the law is unknown.

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Italy

Nuclear Power

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this is the full text of the delega legge passed on June 2

the senate has not approved this yet, but even if it did, it seems this law does not in itself change the regulation of nuclear production in Italy, but rather allows the government to set those rules within 12 months of enactment. Am I reading it right ?

@Odoacre how exactly will you resolve? It feels weird seeing these big bets on yes, I would hate to lose on a technicality. It would be great to lose for real though (i.e. that we start building capacity), but I don’t see that coming.

@mariopasquato I don't think actual building has to happen for Yes.
Meloni recently said:

"Approfitto per dire che entro l'estate sarà approvata la legge delega e saranno adottati i decreti attuativi per il quadro giuridico necessario alla ripresa della produzione nucleare in Italia".

If that does happen, then I think this would be a yes, do you disagree ?

sold Ṁ100 NO

@Odoacre while I agree that, as phrased, the question does not require actual building of new capacity, I don’t know whether the legge delega would count as “removing the ban”. Ultimately it’s your call.

@mariopasquato well, the intent here was to measure wether legal impediments to building nuclear power in Italy were going to be removed.

I think as long as the government does remove the impediments so that building a nuclear power plant becomes possible then I'd consider the "ban" removed

@mariopasquato obviously I don't know what the legge delega will say exactly and also I am not a lawyer, so I'd look for the general consensus to call it.