Was Ukraine behind the drone strike on the Kremlin ?

Ukraine-Russia war•Ukraine•New Year's Resolutions 2024

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resolved Jan 2

Resolved as

75%

ALL

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1653727265920888832

Resolves YES if the Ukrainian government publicly claims responsibility, or if the information is declassified in a way that reveals the Ukrainian's government involvement. It does not have to be 100% Ukraine for this to resolve YES. If an independent group had substantial material support from the Ukrainian government that could be enough for a partial YES.

Might extend the closing date if it looks like the possibility of getting new information justifies it or if there's ongoing discussion.

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Seems likely it was Ukraine, resolved to 75%

predicted YES

bought Ṁ200 of YES

- US officials believe Ukraine was likely responsible for Kremlin drone attack: report (msn.com )
- Ukrainians Were Likely Behind Kremlin Drone Attack, U.S. Officials Say - The New York Times (nytimes.com )
- US intelligence indicates Ukrainians may have launched drone attack on Kremlin | CNN Politics

How are you going to determine who was behind it for the resolution?

@NamesAreHard I'm not sure. We don't really know who was behind the nordstream sabotage either.

One way this resolves would be that the people responsible claim ownership in a credible way.

This could use more clear resolution criteria. E.g. how does this resolve if a Ukrainian person acting independently of the Ukranian government was behind it?

predicted NO

@jack While I agree that clearer resolution criteria are better it should be obvious that Ukraine refers to the nation of Ukraine represented through their official entities not all Ukrainian nationals.

@AlexbGoode this is my interpretation. If the people responsible happen to be Ukrainian but the Ukrainian government credibly did not support them in any way and was unaware of the attempt, that would be NO