This market resolves YES if Russia officially rejoins the G7 (making it the G8 again) before January 1st, 2026. Resolution will be based on official partecipation of a russian representative at a G7/G8 summit.
The number of nations in the group is not substantial to this market, if the number of nations in the group after Russia joins is not 8 (for example because some other country leaves, or joins) the market still resolves yes as long as Russia is part of the group.
Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update:
If a scenario arises where most current members of the G7 have left and the remaining members form a new group (e.g. a G2),
Even if Russia joins this newly formed grouping, it will be treated as a new group rather than Russia rejoining the G7/G8,
In such a case, the market will resolve as NO.
1,000@JussiVilleHeiskanen interesting scenario, I had not considered it. That seems pretty unlikely, for it to happen all current members of G7 need to leave except one, Russia needs to join the group, and they need to decide to still call it the G2. If that actually happened I would consider NO (it's clearly a new group, even if they are calling it the G2)