Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies which country between China and the United States will be the first to implement (not just announce) a reduction in tariffs imposed on the other country. If both countries implement tariff reductions within 24 hours of each other, the market resolves to "Both countries will reduce tariffs simultaneously." If neither country reduces tariffs before January 1, 2026, the market resolves to "Neither country will reduce tariffs before 2026."

Temporary reductions count if they last at least 90 days from date of implementation.

Special exemptions for specific companie (e.g. Apple) single narrowly-defined products (e.g., facemasks only) or for emergency/humanitarian reasons do not count.

Sector-wide tariff exemptions or reductions (e.g. semiconductors, automotive) do count as tariff reductions, provided they are officially published and implemented.