In 1991 the Filipino navy intentionally beached their ship, the Sierra Madre, on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands. That land is also claimed by China (and Vietnam). The ship has since been used as a garrison by Filipino soldiers.

There have been recent escalations around the ship:

• China alleged that the Philippines are in breach of a gentleman’s agreement regarding resupply of the garrison. The Philippines initially denied the existence of such an agreement. China released audio a diplomatic meeting proving the existence.

• The Chinese coast guard has intercepted resupply missions with water cannons.

• The Filipino navy allegedly pointed rifles at the Chinese coast guard.

• The Chinese coast guard has started seizing airdropped supplies.

• There is a new law coming into force on 15 June 2024 that gives the Chinese coast guard the power to detain foreign boats.

If by the end of this year the Sierra Madre is towed away, disintegrates, is abandoned, or has its crew detained, this question resolves YES. If it remains in use as a garrison by Filipino soldiers, this question resolves NO.