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MANIFOLD
How long will the US federal government shut down for FY25/FY26?
40
Ṁ100Ṁ9.5k
resolved Oct 16
ResolvedN/A
33%
Oct 3
33%
Oct 8
33%
Oct 10
1.1%
Oct 15

This is measured as the LAST day of the shutdown

If the current US government shutdown goes PAST OCT 15 (11:59:59 PM EST), then all entries resolve NO.

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And this is why you make sure to properly construct a market

bought Ṁ1 NO

Oct 15th was not the last day of the shutdown. All resolve NO

@Chumchulum That's not possible for this market type, so this needs to resolve N/A now

@Stralor

Time to rug pull

bought Ṁ20 NO

This question is poorly worded, so it’s free money if the author resolves the question based on the wording. I’ll happily take those odds for the government remaining shutdown after October 15th.

If the government remains shut down, this has to resolve N/A because it's not possible to resolve all options NO on this type of market. This was discussed with a mod in a previous thread.

@Cactus That is a reason to buy YES, not NO. 15 will definitionally never resolve NO.

@SimonWestlake i like NO shares

@O1 Could you please resolve the first 3?

@adonisds @mods I'm kinda new here. Does this question structure mean that one of the options will have to resolve yes? Did the writer choose that by mistake?

@adonisds I dont know if it was by mistake but yes this type is "dependent" and must sum-to-1. one answer will be chosen and everything will resolve at that point

bought Ṁ32 NO

@Stralor Is there no way to fix this? Can the market be annulled or can an option "other" be added?

@adonisds we can cancel it if it's clear that no option is good enough (i.e. market desc says "all options resolve NO if..." which wont be possible so N/A will have to happen)

@Stralor I wont trade on this info, but here's an insight: since it's the 11th now, that means Oct 15th is free money. if I end up having to fix the resolution, either it's guaranteed YES or you get your money back. but the creator is active so they'll probably be the one to pull that trigger

@Stralor Based on what you said, this needs to be resolved N/A

If the current US government shutdown goes PAST OCT 15 (11:59:59 PM EST), then all entries resolve NO.

@SimonWestlake agreed. we'll cross that bridge Oct 16th

@Stralor Could you help me understand what happen when it resolves NA? I thought I would received what I bought back, but I had spent $156 and it seems I received $89

@adonisds it undoes every trade, wiping out all realized and unrealized profit/loss. you should have gotten back 156 if you still had 156 in the market at the time it N/A'd, but if you'd sold some with profit then rebought on other lines, etc., then your final total could be less. Or it could just be a notification was wrong while your balance is correct.

@Stralor I didn't know it also reverted realized profits. What happens if you don't have funds to pay back?

@adonisds your balance goes negative! rarely happens from profits alone, since youd have to be aggressively spending all of your balance and moving realized profits to other markets. but it often happens bc of loans. (if it ever happens to you, you can still get your daily streak bonus by selling a small amount of shares from a market)

@O1 What if it's not one of those four days?

@DanielTilkin Agree but just picked these dates...

@O1 So if the last day of the shutdown is October 6th, how will this resolve?
For that matter, how will this resolve if the government does not shut down?