MANIFOLD
Who Will win the 2026 Texas Senate Seat Democratic Primary?
215
Ṁ1.1kṀ310k
resolved Mar 4
100%99.8%
James Talarico
0.0%
Colin Allred
0.2%
Jasmine Crockett
0.0%Other

The Democratic primary is on March 3 2026, however if no majority is received, a run off will be held on May 26. Resolves to who is the Democratic nominee for the Texas Senate seat, according to official results and major media reporting.

  • Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will remain open during vote counting as results are released, and will stay open until a winner is announced (rather than closing when polls close).

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Trade on the Talarico v Crockett margin of victory:

🤣

Yyou can still trade on the margin here:

if you think I resolved it too early and deserve a bad review for it, do both of us a favour and block me. I don’t want you betting on my markets.

this resolved on what basis? the race hasnt been called

@256 Dave wasserman called it

Shouldn't have resolved so quickly, no major media outlet has projected a Talarico victory at this time

@Kraalnaxx Dave wasserman called it

@Jack1 Will you do me a favor and buy this up M1-2

Talaribros, we made it.

@Kraalnaxx huh? Why are you telling me it’s a premature resolution?

always feels good to win

Talarico is my biggest position ever on manifold by far. I really hope he wins. I might not come back from this if he doesn't 😂

@Jack1 dude, way to go cool cat :) Glad your assumptions about the nature of the electorate were right.

@traders

The texas primary is today!

This market will remain open as voting results are released and until a winner is announced

Please manage limit orders accordingly

Thank you

@Jack1 so true

this is underpriced for her....but idk if i want to bet on that opinion

opened a Ṁ15,000 YES at 78% order

@traders I just put up a big yes talarico order

Does anyone want to do volume on tal-yes or crockett-no

@JeromeHPowell like be a counterparty to those trades

Why are people so bullish on Talarico? The polling consistently is for Crockett. Of course polling isn't everything...

Talarico is winning the latest polls

@FecalAbhuman The most recent nonpartisan polling from Emerson and YouGov show Talarico leading , although Talarico had a strong lead in betting markets before that despite that fact that most of the polling showing him leading were sponsored by his own campaign...

bought Ṁ500 YES

Emerson poll | 2/26-2/27 LV

US Senate Texas primaries 2026

🟦Democratic

James Talarico 52%

Jasmine Crockett 47%

Ahmed Hassan 1%

Talarico rising back up on Kalshi. Really good get out the vote operation.

filled a Ṁ85 YES at 68% order

@Jack1 I cannot tell you how aggressively my YouTube feed started serving me Talarico videos a week ago. Every 3rd or 4th video was about him, and I don't even live in Texas.

They know how to SEO.

@Jack1 I was just hate-watching a unitarian church butcher the meaning of faith and at the end of the sermon they had a pretty clear "go vote for talerico" message. You might win on this.

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