Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE. Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.
This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.
Must get over 5% to count. If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count. A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.
If a state cancels a primary, we will ignore that state.
If Uncommitted/none of these candidates finishes 1st or 2nd in a state, only 1 person is eligible to receive a YES resolution from that state.
Comment below if you want an answer added, or need clarification about something.
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@NzJack0n Is 6% really the true value here? If he gets onto the ballot in any state for any reason, it would probably be 100%. So either there's some state people think is ~5% likely he gets on the ballot, or [insert logic here about whether states are correlated in this]. It feels to me like this should either be significantly lower than 6%, such as 1-3%, or else much higher.
(I think Manifold could do a LOT better at managing probabilities in this range....)
@Eliza Youre right, I didn’t consider the fact that His name may be on the ballot, I was assuming trump wouldn’t run, but maybe there’s a way his name is on the ballot even if he doesn’t run.
@Eliza and definitely not. this market hasn’t had a lot of traders yet, 6% was just because I hasn’t considered everything, if more people saw it they’d probably have bet against me
@Eliza DEFINITELY some food for thought. I don't know how to bet on actual predicting of things, just sharing my ideas.
@Eliza This feels like the kind of thing where someone will show up and say "Actually in state X this is totally likely to happen because of A, B, C."