@Quroe loaned 1$ bets $4000 mana. And is due to get 5000 mana back. I’m not confident he’ll receive it back, due to behaviour from the @1bets account, so I’m wondering what the probability is he’ll get the loan back.
Resolution criteria. 5,000 or more mana sent to Quroe before 11.59.59pm est on Jan 4 est. can be in multiple transactions, and can be more, but must be for this specific loan.
Must be sent from 1$ bets account. If Mods recover it or a ‘friend’ of 1$ bets send it, or Quroe gets an insurance payout, it doesn’t count.
Market resolves No if Quroe doesn’t receive full payout by the date on the screenshot. If Quroe grants an extension, doesn’t change the market. Will still resolve No at Jan 4 11.59.59est 2026.
1,000People are also trading
I'm taking a chance to see what this person does.
1bets seems like the account that has the most social capital in it. It is the least prone to blast LLM slop.
If they pay it out, cool! I get to poke through their trade ledger and see how they operate.
If not, I get to shame them and drag their name through the mud. They'll have to restart their social capital campaign from scratch.
———
While I have this paragraph on my ledger...
I respectfully request that no markets be made predicting whether a loan on this ledger will be paid off or not. Let your word be your word.
...I'll let it slide just this once.
@creator Nah, go ahead. Reopen it. Let's play this game.
Edit: the market momentarily resolved N/A. This was my response.