These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

This doesn't exactly work, right? Because anyone who notices that the price is too high cannot necessarily profit from it (unless they already have yes shares).

@galaga The only way the price can be too high is if there's a risk of improper resolution, in which case you can profit (in expectation) by buying NO. And anyway, this isn't meant to be a market so much as seeing how high a market will go when the resolution isn't in question - even when there's a known resolution in 10 days, this market's off by 0.3%.

@NcyRocks the price can be "too high" in the sense that if a random uninvested person who joins manifold just puts all their money into pushing this price higher than would be implied by a natural average discount rate, nobody can correct it. I agree that YES shares cannot be underpriced. But they can be overpriced (due to erratic actions of a few people), without NO shares being underpriced.

@galaga Good point, I wouldn’t have thought of that. Seems to me there’s a sense in which those who bought YES earlier can correct the price by selling down to the correct discount rate, then reinvesting the proceeds in other markets?

Im proud to be the big down spike in mid October