In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
22
1kṀ7082040
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040. So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively. If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well.
This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive.
Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
5% chance
How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2024?
Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance
Will Manifold donate at least $50 to a fraudulent charity before 2030?
60% chance
Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
2% chance
Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?
55% chance