Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Mini
8
620
2029
2%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.

Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.

Question is global -- charges in any country count.

Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.

Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.

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