I’m resolving this to 60%. That’s the reported turnout with one seat left to declare and I can only see upside risks to the number at this stage, e.g. postal ballots coming in.
This market resolved way too early: The Guardian now reporting that the turnout was 52% https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/12/lowest-turnout-in-uk-general-election-since-universal-suffrage-report-shows
(Yes, this is turnout as a percentage of the general population and not as a percentage of registered voters - my point is the final figure is unlikely to have exceeded 60% in light of this report)
Guardian reporting 59.9% on their liveblog, referencing PA.
"The overall turnout for the general election was the lowest it has been for more than 20 years, PA new agency is reporting.
The overall turnout was 59.9%, a sharp decrease from the 67.3% that voted at the 2019 election."
@Numnumduck Given that it's exactly on the boundary shouldn't this resolve 50% each for the 2 top options?
Also calculated the the valid votes cast; 28,747,397 which translates to valid vote turnout of 59.62% (without Inverness and friends). Based on the maximum constituency size it'll get bumped to 59.72%
However, it's my understanding that usually people talk about the ballot box turnout, i.e. valid votes + rejected votes; for the latter I have no numbers.
Historically spoiled ballots have been about 0.2-0.3% of the vote (not very helpful here though!) although this time they might be higher due to the increase in postal voting post-COVID combined with the much stricter postal vote verification rules.
I think we'll need to wait for the EC or some other organisation to calculate some official numbers, or somebody is going to have to tabulate the results from each constituency manually!