Resolves YES if the answer with the highest percentage in the Free Response - Fixed Payout POTY 2023 market is also the Time Person of the Year 2023 once it resolves. Also resolves YES if multiple top answers share the same percetange (up to 1 decimal point, if shown).
Resolves N/A if there is no POTY this year, or if the market results are manipulated somehow.
Resolves NO otherwise, including if the resolved answer is Other.
This market will close after the POTY market closes, and will resolve when the POTY is officially announced.
Update: the final top spot in the POTY market is ChatGPT, meaning this market will resolve YES if the person of the year is revealed to be ChatGPT.
Update 2: the POTY market has been reopened, so I'll try to keep this market open to match it. This means ChatGPT may no longer make this market resolve YES (thanks @firstuserhere for notifying me).
Update 3: the POTY has been announced, and it's Taylor Swift, who was only in 2nd place in the linked market, making this resolve to NO.
The POTY market in question:
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ252 | |
| 2 | Ṁ244 | |
| 3 | Ṁ243 | |
| 4 | Ṁ161 | |
| 5 | Ṁ133 |
@firstuserhere Even without accounting for that, why should this have been higher than 40% (the probability of the top answer on the main market)?
@Eiim Because this is a 1x-leveraged payout, while the Sam Altman option on the main market was closer to 0.5x.
@drcat This market was always supposed to close before the announcement, alongside (or at least slightly after) the POTY market. Now that the linked market has also been resolved, I'm resolving this one!
Moved the close date to match the linked market's one
the linked market closes multiple times i think, which makes the following outdated i think
Update: the final top spot in the POTY market is ChatGPT, meaning this market will resolve YES if the person of the year is revealed to be ChatGPT.
Yeah I keep postponing the close date until we learn when the TIME announcement will be
@firstuserhere thanks for the heads-up! I wish there was a way to automatically keep meta-markets open until the linked one closes.
@GGtr Ideally I'd hope to close this between the closing of the POTY market and the reveal. The POTY market says that "This market's close date will be adjusted as necessary to close before the person of the year is expected to be announced."
If I'm awake when that happens, I'll also change the close date for this one.