Will Manifold successfully predict the Time Person of the Year 2023?
104
1.2kṀ7546
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
NO
  • Resolves YES if the answer with the highest percentage in the Free Response - Fixed Payout POTY 2023 market is also the Time Person of the Year 2023 once it resolves. Also resolves YES if multiple top answers share the same percetange (up to 1 decimal point, if shown).

  • Resolves N/A if there is no POTY this year, or if the market results are manipulated somehow.

  • Resolves NO otherwise, including if the resolved answer is Other.

This market will close after the POTY market closes, and will resolve when the POTY is officially announced.

Update: the final top spot in the POTY market is ChatGPT, meaning this market will resolve YES if the person of the year is revealed to be ChatGPT.

Update 2: the POTY market has been reopened, so I'll try to keep this market open to match it. This means ChatGPT may no longer make this market resolve YES (thanks @firstuserhere for notifying me).

Update 3: the POTY has been announced, and it's Taylor Swift, who was only in 2nd place in the linked market, making this resolve to NO.

The POTY market in question:

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