1,000
3.00@JaimeSantaCruz Strongly against Catholic social teaching, recently referred to the Pope as "always on the side of evil"
@TiredCliche Thanks. I think Cristina K wasn’t catholic friendly either but I don’t see any real action taken against Catholics coming to be honest. We’ve had two or three atheist / agnostic presidents in Chile and other than slightly advancing abortion not much has happened other than the Catholic Church digging its own grave and losing almost all influence in the last 15 years.
@JaimeSantaCruz What I mean to say is that Latin America is culturally Christian, if not Catholic, and most politicians will not kick that wasp hive.
@TiredCliche You will get this “the pope is a communist” opinion from almost everybody here; it’s just that Milei keeps saying the quiet part loud.
@dittopoop I haven’t been following this too closely but this market has always been very close to the real money markets. I doubt it was too far from the true probability
@dittopoop I bought a little yes after the most recent Atlas Intel poll. Honestly think they’re the best pollster in the world at this point, they romped in the 2020 US election too
@MarkHamill Look at the probability. It's at 62%! The other Argentinian election market traded at 99% before it was resolved. It seemed like this market specifically just flew under everybody's radar.
@dittopoop this market closed early, so it’s unfair to compare it to a market which ran until it could be at 99 percent
Atlas Intel was the only pollster to consistently rank Massa first and Milei second.
Their latest poll conducted from Nov 1st to 3rd gives Milei first: https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_Argentina_de_2023
@adssx Bloomberg published an article on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/argentina-election-milei-holds-narrow-lead-over-massa-in-poll-ahead-of-runoff
@MP Among the four recent polls (including Atlas Intel), three give Milei as the winner: https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_Argentina_de_2023#Tras_la_primera_vuelta_y_las_elecciones_primarias
The only pollster giving Massa as the winner is Analogías, but they have 12% of "Indecisos" (3x more than other pollsters).
Note that most of those polls are online, and online users are much more likely to favor Milei than Massa. Polling agencies are likely adjusting for this effect, so I don't think one should necessarily infer a bias in favor of Milei, but it probably adds a lot of noise, making polling data less reliable. This may in part explain why the polls performed so poorly in both the primary and the general elections. This may also provide a reason for looking less at the poll aggregates and more at “longitudinal” poll data from a single agency. E.g. it seems striking that Analogías now says the gap between Massa and Milei is a mere 2.7 percentage points, when that same firm said it was 8.1 a week or so ago, or that, even more strikingly, Proyección Consultores says Milei is ahead of Massa by 1.7 points when it said Massa was ahead of Milei by 10.4 points. It doesn't appear to me that these changes result from a change in polling methodology, since they all took place after the general elections (when I would expect the polling firms to recalibrate their weights in response to the election results).
@Oxoniensis well, Atlas is online and they were the only ones to put Massa ahead of Milei.
Online is more likely to get better results these days because increasingly people aren't replying to phone calls.
And obviously, after the general, you can adjust the data based on who you voted in primeira vuelta. If you open Atlas' PDF, they disclose Massa V. Milei for each relevant demography. The main isso is that Schiaretti voters aren't flowing to Massa. Many of them don't plan to vote, some will vote for Milei, and just like 40% are goint to Massa. Kn the other hand, Bullrich voters are flowing to Milei nicely.