Will Jacinda Ardern be the Prime Minister of New Zealand for all of 2023?
Resolved
NO

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JamesTown avatar
James Townpredicted NO

Bought no at 84% mmm delicious. I would've bought more if I had the bux

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmettpredicted NO at 1%
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngpredicted NO at 2%

This can resolve now; Chris Hipkins is the Prime Minister of New Zealand.

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmettpredicted NO at 2%

She has had her final public appearance. Chris Hipkins is to replace her tomorrow.


https://apnews.com/article/politics-jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-c3129930cdea2161330ed31ce44c69d3

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted YES at 1%

It’s genuinely surprising this is at 1%, for the time it will take to settle, there is going to be better ways to get a 2% return.

Plus, the risk premium is still there that she doesn’t step down as expected. More reasonably this should be at like 8-10% and then decay over the next two months as it becomes an imminent certainty.

Enjoy waiting for that 1% profit lol

SamuelRichardson avatar
Samuel Richardsonpredicted NO at 1%

@Gen According to my father, she's a literal dictator so I wouldn't be too sure she'd step down (caveat, my father is consumed with conspiracy theories 😂 )

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ25 of YES

@SamuelRichardson Your father sounds smart!! Buy buy buy !!

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngpredicted NO at 1%

@Gen Her latest possible day is supposed to be the 7th (in less than 3 weeks) and they're voting on her replacement in two days. I'd be surprised if she was still PM this time next week.

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted YES at 2%

@NcyRocks That’s if you believe her!! This whole thing is just a ploy so she can find out who’s gunning for her job and then have them killed!! Putin101

Gen avatar
Genzysold Ṁ59 of YES

@Gen Ok I sold my position, nobody really taking the bait. Small profit at least lol

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngpredicted NO at 2%
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngpredicted NO at 1%

This shouldn't resolve yet; it should wait until Jacinda actually resigns. (That seems like a sure thing, but it hasn't happened yet, and if there's a big enough controversy around the next leader she miiiight stay on.)

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngbought Ṁ200 of NO

How am I the only one with NO shares? Labour's well behind in the polls. That's not super predictive this far out, but it's certainly not an advantage!

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmett

@NcyRocks Mainly because I needed liquidity for all the markets ending here at year end! I had to dissolve my position, because it was going to take way too long to settle.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young