Happened on April 23:

https://twitter.com/mrjeffu/status/1647926568591962112?t=nxuLHQAPGBnDT0G2b8-cAA&s=19

https://seijiyama.jp/area/card/14040/fCNPi7/M?S=qenel0lfsale

I was a bit worried the latest news might make people less likely to do it so decided to look again lol

@CodeandSolder Well done finding that, thank you!

This already happened last year lol: https://futurism.com/political-party-led-by-artificial-intelligence

@CodeandSolder and in 2018: https://leadership4ir.com/2018/04/19/ai-candidate-runs-for-mayor-in-japan/

@CodeandSolder https://mantra.ai/blogs/ai-in-2020-election/michihito-matsuda/

@CodeandSolder Dang, I always forget that there are countries that aren't the US.

@CodeandSolder The Danish Party didn't seem to actually run in the election. Also, please note the question doesn't ask about AI running, but rather about individuals who promise to outsource their decision-making to one, which in my opinion also disqualifies the Japanese example.

@Nostradamnedus what do you mean, in the Japanese example it is, as far as I understood, a human running and he promised to defer to AI

@CodeandSolder You are correct, my bad.

@Nostradamnedus Wait, if @CodeandSolder is correct, why hasn't this resolved?

@JoshuaB It happened before the market was created, I think it's only logical that any prediction market is about events happening in the future.

Is it worth it to create another market with similar criteria but with a promise to refer to AI on all of their decision-making rather than outsourcing it entirely? "I will consult the latest version of PolicyGPT before casting any vote in Parliament if elected" seems like a reasonable position someone might take while also running for office on their own personal merits.

@PipFoweraker I guess so, probably still gonna look wack to most voters.

To see if anyone actually gets elected:

Before I go all in on this question - how likely of a candidate do they have to be?

Anyone running for any political office anywhere in the world isn’t just a massive pool, it’s also filled with unfathomable numbers of “unconventional” candidates that get pretty much no votes. From the question, they should count too - do they?

@TomCohen Yes, any candidate.

@Nostradamnedus Thanks!

@TomCohen Hunting for an equivalent of Lord Buckethead, I see

@PipFoweraker I mean if I actually get my British citizenship next month I’ll just do it myself

@TomCohen That's the kind of badass eccentricity that will endear you to the average British civil servant, good luck with your application!

There’s like—how do you put it?— a lot of people in the world. I think that this will most definitely happen and the thing that is more unlikely is finding the evidence that someone did this.

Also this market is woefully manipultable: the barrier to running for some random minor office is really really low (though running a campaign just to manipulate this market seems that it’d probably incur a reputational hit)

calling all jregories