Resolution Criteria (Simplified)

This market resolves to the total number of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) incidents that the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) officially acknowledges as having occurred between January 1 and December 31, 2025.

The number will be taken from AARO’s public report(s) covering that period, as published on www.aaro.mil, or, if unavailable, from official releases by the Department of Defense (DoD) or Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

If AARO’s reporting periods don’t align perfectly with the 2025 calendar year, only the portions explicitly describing incidents that occurred in 2025 will be counted.
If multiple official sources conflict, the number posted on AARO’s own website takes precedence.
If no official AARO report covering 2025 is issued by January 1, 2027, the market will instead use data from AARO’s public reports to Congress or other authorized oversight bodies. In such a case, the outcome “Below 0 - IE No Report Issued by Jan 1, 2027” may resolve as Yes, alongside any numeric outcome derived from available data, per rules established by Manifold for non terrestrial math related anomalies and paradoxes.

Background (Concise)

AARO, created within the U.S. DoD in 2022, coordinates investigation and attribution of unidentified airborne, transmedium, or submerged objects. Its annual or periodic reports list total UAP incidents and their dispositions. This market concerns only those acknowledged as having occurred during 2025, regardless of classification outcome (identified or unresolved).