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MANIFOLD
Another major museum robbery (>$1M value) before April 18, 2026
85
Ṁ100Ṁ22k
resolved Apr 15
Resolved
YES

This market tracks whether another significant museum robbery occurs before April 18, 2026, following the recent pattern of high-profile museum thefts. Recent incidents include the October 2025 Louvre heist ($102M), September 2025 National Museum of Natural History robbery, and multiple French museum thefts in 2024-2025.

Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if a museum robbery occurs before April 18, 2026 where:

  • Stolen items are valued at $1 million USD or more by official sources

  • The theft occurs at a recognized museum, gallery, or cultural institution

  • The incident is reported by major news outlets (BBC, Reuters, AP, CNN, etc.)

Valuation will be based on official estimates from law enforcement, insurance companies, or museum statements. Currency conversions will use exchange rates at time of theft. Private gallery thefts count if the gallery functions as a museum with public access.

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this spiked down for a bit? what happened?

bought Ṁ200 YES

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4vw2xmpzzo
Thieves steal Renoir, Cézanne and Matisse paintings in three-minute Italian heist
Paintings by Renoir, Cézanne and Matisse worth millions of euros were stolen in a heist on a museum near the Italian city of Parma, police say.
It estimated the stolen paintings had a combined worth of €9m (£7.8m), with Les Poissons alone worth €6m - making it one of the most significant art thefts in Italy in recent years.

@generalconsensus resolve please

bought Ṁ596 YES

Another museum was just robbed but the total value lost was just 90k euros

https://globalnews.ca/news/11491691/french-museum-robbed-gold-silver-coins-louvre-theft/amp/