Will the polling gap between Labour and Conservative parties change before the 2024 UK General Election?
Mini
20
1.4k
Jun 27
8%
1) Significant Narrowing: ΔGap% is less than -5%
14%
2) Moderate Narrowing: ΔGap% is between -2% and -5%
55%
3) No Significant Change: ΔGap% is between -2% and +2%
21%
4) Moderate Widening: ΔGap% is between +2% and +5%
2%
5) Significant Widening: ΔGap% is more than +5%

The aim of this market is to forecast if, and how, the polling gap between the Labour and Conservative parties shifts as we approach the 2024 UK General Election. Using data from Politico UK’s Poll of Polls, we’re starting with a gap of 21% - Labour at 45%, Conservatives at 24% as of 12th February.

How It Works:

• Baseline: The initial gap is 21%.

• Resolution Date: The market resolves one week before the 2024 UK General Election day.

• Data Source: Politico UK Poll of Polls - National parliament voting intention (smooth lines)

• Calculation: We’ll compare the gap one week before the election to our baseline. The change in percentage points (ΔGap%) will determine the resolution.

Examples:

• If Labour polls at 50% and Conservatives at 20%, the gap is 30%. That’s a 9% increase, resolving as “Significant Widening”.

• If Labour polls at 35% and Conservatives at 30%, the gap is 5%. That’s a 16% decrease, resolving as “Significant Narrowing”.

Errata:

  • This market depends on the Politico Poll of Polls, if that ceases to exist for whatever reason then this market will resolve N/A.

  • This market resolves based on the most recent polling data shown one week from the election. The polling data may be from further back but this will be the data that is taken for resolution.

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Fascinating how rock solid polling has been in the three months since I sent this market live. As of today, Politico has LAB 44 and CON 23 for a 21% polling gap. Totally unchanged.

I still think that when an election is called we'll see some narrowing, but beginning to wonder whether it'll be enough to trigger the "significant narrowing" gap in the face of such stability.

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