I have two children; a two year old and a three month old. At closure of this market, will my subjective opinion be that driving is a useful skill that they should learn?
The market closure is set to a point when both children will be legally able (according to current UK law) to apply for their provisional driving licence and so this should be something they are considering.
Things that may influence how you buy:
1) I currently believe that driving is a useful skill for most people to have.
2) The only time I believe 1) does not apply is when you live in a major metropolis that is well served by public transport.
3) We currently live in at suburban environment which is poorly served by public transport.
4) We live in the UK, if that has any bearing on your thoughts about self driving car infrastructure in 2039.
5) If my children were of legal driving age at market creation I would resolve YES
6) To avoid influencing the market I will not invest myself.
Any questions, feel free to stick them in the comments.
1,000
3.00Close date -15y update: My family is still in the same situation, and if anything, it feels more likely than last year that they will need to learn to drive. Full self driving cars feel further away than they did last year. There’s an incoming Labour government but there’s been very little discussion of transport policy and I’m not expecting a sudden flood of good public transport options. Still, a lot can change in 15 years!
I just can't see self-driving cars taking off to such an extent. Musk has proven it can't be done at decent cost (stripping costly LIDAR out in favour of cameras) is the major problem Tesla is facing.
I believe too few people in the UK will be willing to lease their cars out to strangers (so car as an investment as Tesla is promoting) or permit it's use as a taxi, won't become a 'thing'
I would go so far as to say, FSD cars may well be available when your kids are old enough to drive, but the cost & ubiquity or lack thereof of cars actually capable of doing so, will mean that yes, they will need to learn how to drive.
We are 20 years down the line from the first Tesla roadster, and FSD has been a goal from the get-go. Another 15 won't see it approved for UK roads (see also: The CyberTruck)
My 50 is on Yes 👍
I think you're a bit more bearish on FSD than most here, but I don't think yours is an unreasonable position. But it is worth considering other alternatives that might stop me recommending learning to drive:
ultra-cheap / high availability Ubers
a massive increase in public transport provision
My family moving to an urban centre that already has excellent public transport
@disclaimer Your focus on Tesla is odd to me because Google/Waymo has been leading the way for over a decade. Part of the beauty of self driving cars is that you don't have to own them, so economies of scale can take effect.
@ShakedKoplewitz I’d lean towards resolving NO in that case , assuming price, safety and availability of rides were sufficient.