Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this quarter?

Question

Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Resolves YES if any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet in a listed calendar quarter (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec).

Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.

Losing one cabinet role when multiple are held (and thus remaining in cabinet) does not count as leaving.

All cabinet members being replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election will resolve YES.

The only cabinet positions that will cause this to resolve are those listed under the "Cabinet Ministers" section of the webpage above.

Ministers under "Also attends Cabinet" will NOT cause a YES resolution.

Ministers under "Ministers by department" not also under "Cabinet Ministers" will NOT cause a YES resolution

The Cabinet Office is NOT the same as Cabinet and Ministers under "Cabinet Office" not also under "Cabinet Ministers" will NOT cause a YES resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q1 are most likely. See the market for live updates (34 traders, as of Mar 17, 2026).