What will be true of the UK.gov October Budget?
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Plus
71
Ṁ30k
resolved Nov 1
Resolved
YES
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) Increase
Resolved
YES
Introduction of Inheritance Tax (IHT) on currently-exempt categories (eg. agricultural land and family businesses)
Resolved
YES
Increase in employer National Insurance (NI) contributions
Resolved
YES
Complete removal of Non-Domiciled tax status
Resolved
YES
Any change to Non-Domiciled tax status
Resolved
YES
Income Tax threshold freeze continued/extended
Resolved
YES
Reduction or elimination of BAD Relief from Capital Gains Tax (CGT)
Resolved
YES
Funding for HS2 to go to Euston
Resolved
YES
Fiscal rules (or interpretation) changed to allow for more investment
Resolved
YES
"British ISA" plan officially cancelled
Resolved
YES
Stamp duty increase for UK buyers
Resolved
YES
Inheritance Tax (IHT) charged on (currently tax-free) pensions
Resolved
YES
Reform of "carried interest" tax loophole
Resolved
YES
Stamp duty increase (non-UK buyers)
Resolved
YES
Any tax increase specifically targeting vapes
Resolved
NO
Income / PAYE Tax increase
Resolved
NO
National Insurance (NI) Increase for employees
Resolved
NO
Inheritance Tax (IHT) Increase
Resolved
NO
VAT Increase
Resolved
NO
Corporation Tax Increase

The next UK budget is due to be held on October 30th. Which of the above statements will be true about what is unveiled on budget day?

When resolving the "$tax increase" options:

  • I will resolve YES if:

    • The % rate of tax goes up (i.e. paying more)

    • The threshold at which it is paid goes down (i.e. more people pay / pay more)

  • If the tax is changed such that there are winners and losers (e.g. an increase in % rate but also an increase in threshold) then I will resolve 50%.

  • I will resolve NO if:

    • The % rate of tax goes down

    • The threshold at which it is paid goes up

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Can someone more technical than me advise on which (if either) of the changes to the Fiscal Rules should resolve YES? ChatGPT thinks they're both NO but I'm not confident enough to rely on that.

@AgenticLondoner @cw7954857458

Just tagging the person who proposed the answers and the person who bet YES on one of them.

(As another trader in these answers, one might expect me to have some understanding of what they mean, but of course I do not, for I was just betting NO on everything...)

@Noit there's a change to the fiscal rules to use PSNFL rather than PSND (both resolve no)

@AgenticLondoner pronounced persnuffle

@Noit should have resolved YES:

To help drive the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) the government is strengthening incentives to purchase EVs by widening the differentials in Vehicle Excise Duty First Year Rates between EVs and hybrids or internal combustion engine cars. The government is also maintaining EV incentives in the Company Car Tax regime and extending 100% First Year Allowances for zero emission cars and EV chargepoints for a further year.

@alh ooh, maybe. the second change, as it's maintaining the status quo, but the VED differential might be. Is it a change to non-ICE or is it a change to ICE?

@Noit Further down (5.85) it looks like it's an increase to ICE VED rather than a chance to EV.

@Noit Yep, looks like it's just ICE rates being increased and EV maintained. If EV was also increased but by less than ICE that would still count though, I think.

@Noit Looks like the current first year VED for electric cars is £0 a year, so the new rate of £10 (5.86) would be an increase/change. But is £10 really significant enough to be a change?

@alh Where are you seeing that? £10 isn't significant but it is a change and I'd swap to YES.

@Noit Ah, no change after all. The £10 was already announced by the previous government to take effect next year: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low-emissions-vehicles

Doc is out here, I'm working through what I can to clear up the remainder.

@Noit Would anyone argue about resolving this YES? The rate has not gone up, but with pensions and other exemptions removed IHT take will be up.

@Noit I'd argue this should resolve NO (the rates and thresholds have remained the same).

IIRC the market for the currently-exempt categories having IHT imposed was higher than this one, so people were betting on the basis that the loss of additional exemptions wouldn't cause this to resolve YES.

@alh Entirely logical, you've changed my mind.

@alh Should resolve YES, as the rate difference decreases from 10% this year to 6% in the 2026-27 tax year.

Lol, @Noit is ahead of BBC news live updates. I'm better off following this market than the actual news. 🤣

@Fion amazing nothing-ever-happens betting. 🤣

@Noit hahaha, called out! Yeah, idk. I feel like there's a lot of options in this market and a lot of them are quite high %. I get that it's the government's first budget, but I feel like budgets don't normally have quite this much in them?

I think there might be a bit of a bias where you hear one option in isolation and you think "yeah, that sounds quite likely" and bet it up, but in fact there might be two or three policies that would have a similar impact and the government will just choose one of them.

Unfortunately I don't really follow the news or social media so I can't really bet on the actual probabilities, so I'm reduced to betting on the market itself.

bought Ṁ10 YES

One week to budget day! As a reminder, this market will close before the budget speech starts so there will not be live trading as announcements are made. So get your bets in now!

National Insurance (NI) Increase
% here looks like it assumes employers NI increase but not employees NI does not resolve this yes. Is that correct?

@ChristopherRandles there’s a separate answer for employer’s NI. If nobody has any complaints I’ll change the NI option to employees NI for clarity?

@alh I can't edit this now, but this should have been Stamp Duty Increase (UK buyers) as Labour had a manifesto commitment to increase this for non-UK buyers (separate answer created)

@alh fixed that for you!

@alh This has already been reported to be cancelled, but not officially confirmed by the government as far as I can tell. I would expect that the two answers on ISA contribution limit increase/decrease should resolve based on the £20000 limit rather than including the additional £5000 previously announced for the British ISA - that is, the confirmation or cancellation of the British ISA wouldn't affect the resolution of either of these two answers.

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