What percentage of planets with life will develop intelligent life (civilisation)?
16
106
310
Mar 15
13%
chance

This market will be used to calculate fi for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation (here)[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation].

Buy YES to increase percentage and NO to decrease percentage. 100% indicates all planets with life will develop at least one intelligent life form, 0% indicates no planets with life will develop at least one intelligent life form.

This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to the percentage of that consensus.

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