What percentage of planets with life will develop intelligent life (civilisation)?

Science Aliens Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

Basic

Ṁ758

2026

chance

ALL

This market will be used to calculate fi for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation (here)[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation].

Buy YES to increase percentage and NO to decrease percentage. 100% indicates all planets with life will develop at least one intelligent life form, 0% indicates no planets with life will develop at least one intelligent life form.

This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to the percentage of that consensus.

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I haven't read much into this scientifically, but just based on the fact that we know of no other intelligent life in the history of earth, and that we are much more intelligent than 2nd place. I would guess this is pretty low and that we are pretty rare.

This concept would function better as a poll. I think the percentage is 1% or less, but there is no incentive for me to buy shares in this market if it never resolves

bought Ṁ10 YES

Surely it depends on the time frame, random variation means it's a near certainty that a lifeform in a red dwarf star system will eventually have a selection pressure for intelligence

Results of this market will be used here at first closure:

https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA

How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation. For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5). [markets]