Will Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?

Question

Resolves based on these underlying markets:

Threshold conversion: Texas has 38 House seats. "At least 14 Democratic Representatives" is equivalent to "at most 24 Republican Representatives" in the underlying market.

Outcome Senate market Reps market (R version) Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps YES 0-8 through 24 Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps YES 25 through 34-38 Non-Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps NO 0-8 through 24 Non-Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps NO 25 through 34-38

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps, followed by Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps and Non-Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Oct 28, 2026).

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