Will there be a consensus on the origin of cosmic rays with energies beyond the GZK limit by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will there be a consensus on the origin of cosmic rays with energies beyond the GZK limit by the end of 2030?

4

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2031

35%

chance

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6H

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1M

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This question will resolve YES if there is a broad consensus in the scientific community on the origin of cosmic rays with energies beyond the Greisen–Zatsepin–Kuzmin limit before the end of 2030.

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What if there is consensus that at least X% of such cosmic rays come from e.g. neutron star mergers but X is less than 100?

@ArmandodiMatteo also, would "cosmic rays are produced in Seyfert galaxies" count as "the origin" or should we also know the mechanism?

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